Don't Pick A Fight With A Gorilla
Whilst in quarantine last week my husband and I shared our office. One afternoon we had a real chuckle together at an article he was reading.
It was the results of a YouGov survey. I tend to think about YouGov as asking pretty serious questions, with mostly serious answers. The latest bucked the trend.
The question – which of the following animals do you think you could beat in a fight if you were unarmed? (If you know my husband you will know, he loves this sort of thing.)
This was posed to both Brits and Americans, and there’s quite a difference between the two nationalities.
Less than 70% of Brits were confident that they could beat a rat in a fight.
A rat.
I mean I don’t love rats, but if I was put in the ring with a rat and my life depended on it, I give myself a 100% chance of squishing it. The average rat only weighs around 200g, at the top end. I don’t know what mutant rats people were thinking about (a quick google search identifies the African Giant Pouched Rat which, wait for it…weighs up to a massive 1.5kg).
Likewise with a housecat.
The question doesn’t actually specify, but I assume that the animals are also unarmed. I think I would fancy myself even against an armed housecat.
You are probably ok against the housecat.
A goose is an interesting one. A little over 40% of Brits thought they could beat a goose (almost 60% thought they could not beat a goose in an unarmed fight), whilst the Americans were still only 60% confident.
Maybe Brits have been traumatised by geese on country walks as kids. They can seem quite big.
But they don’t have teeth. Or arms. And their legs aren’t a whole lot of good in a fight. So I am not sure what part of them would inflict fatal damage on a grown adult in a fight? My imagination is going crazy now, yours?
Now onto the other end of the spectrum. Almost 10% of Americans thought they could beat a gorilla, lion and elephant in an unarmed fight.
An average male gorilla weighs about 375 pounds and their upper body strength is about six times more powerful than that of an average adult human. That’s a pretty big advantage in unarmed combat. I don’t know who the 10% of superhumans are that are beating that creature. The fight would be over in five seconds.
I give myself 0% chance.
Ditto, lion and elephant, and every animal past large dog.
I can SORT OF get how some people thought they could beat a gorilla – maybe they have never seen a picture of a gorilla and were picturing a sweet cuddly monkey. But an elephant. Surely every human surveyed knows how big an elephant is. How are you bringing it to the ground, with YOUR BARE HANDS? And let’s say the elephant somehow fell off his (four) feet and collapsed in the fight. How are you killing it? WITH YOUR BARE HANDS? Am I missing something? (I know the question does not say you have to kill it but it’s a fight, so presumably if you don’t kill the animal then it is killing you and by definition you have lost the fight?).
As you can see, I loved this survey – absolutely loved it.
It confirms everything we know about human beings. We are totally delusional and also devoid of any common sense.
(My mind goes to the other funny YouGov survey recently where 12% of men (and a few women) said they could win a point in a game of tennis against 23 time grand slam winner Serena Williams. Twitter blew up over that one).
Being serious for a moment, there are some good lessons here.
The benefit of humility is one (but not too much that you doubt your ability to kill a rat).
Overconfidence will kill you in a ring with a gorilla and also in your financial life. Study after study show that those who think they can outperform the market trade more often (even when losing money doing so – they tend to forget their losses and inflate their wins), take on too much debt and don’t diversify.
Overconfidence is worse in a bull market – it’s very easy to confuse brains with a bull market. Many people make this mistake. Seeing your investments rise in a rising market is not validation of your skills as an investor.
The YouGov survey highlights how poor we are at risk perception and management. This is especially true in a bull market. The overconfidence produced in a bull market lures investors to abandon good processes and risk management. As an example, I have had two clients this week ask me how they take more risk in portfolios that are already 100% equity.
All I can say is, don’t pick a fight with a gorilla.
Georgie
georgie@libertywealth.ky